Modelling the effectiveness of an isolation strategy for managing mpox outbreaks with variable infectiousness profiles

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-51143-w
• Publication Date: 2024-08-26T10:02:23Z
• Authors: Yong Dam Jeong; William S. Hart; Robin N. Thompson; Masahiro Ishikane; Takara Nishiyama; Hyeongki Park; Noriko Iwamoto; Ayana Sakurai; Michiyo Suzuki; Kazuyuki Aihara; Koichi Watashi; Eline Op de Coul; Norio Ohmagari; Jacco Wallinga; Shingo Iwami; Fuminari Miura
• Keywords: Isolation; Infectious dose; Viral Shedding

The global outbreak of mpox in 2022 and subsequent sporadic outbreaks 2023 highlighted the importance nonpharmaceutical interventions such as case isolation. Individual variations viral shedding dynamics may lead to either premature ending isolation for infectious individuals, or unnecessarily prolonged those who are no longer infectious. Here, we developed a modeling framework characterize heterogeneous infectiousness profiles – specifically, when infected individuals cease be based on load data. We examined potential effectiveness three different rules: symptom-based rule (the current guideline many countries) rules permitting stop isolating after fixed duration following tests that indicate they likely Our analysis suggests ranges from 23 50 days between individuals. risk too early was estimated 8.8% (95% CI: 6.7–10.5) symptom clearance 5.4% 4.1–6.7) 3 weeks While these results suggest standard practice is effective, found unnecessary period could reduced by adopting testing-based rule. Current guidelines recommend exposed should isolate weeks, average incubation period. authors use quantitative model characterise quantify impacts rules.