Tipping point-induced abrupt shifts in East Asian hydroclimate since the Last Glacial Maximum

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-55888-w
• Publication Date: 2025-01-08T03:30:29Z
• Authors: Fuzhi Lu; Huayu Lu; Yao Gu; Pengyu Lin; Zhengyao Lu; Qiong Zhang; Hongyan Zhang; Fan Yang; Xiaoyi Dong; Shuangwen Yi; Deliang Chen; Francesco S. R. P...; Maya Ben-Yami; Jennifer V. Mecking
• Keywords: Last Glacial Maximum; Tipping point (physics); Proxy (statistics); Climate system; East Asian Monsoon

Multiple tipping points in the Earth system could be triggered when global warming exceeds specific thresholds. However, degree of their impact on East Asian hydroclimate remains uncertain due to lack quantitative rainfall records. Here we present an ensemble reconstruction summer monsoon (EASM) since Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using nine statistical and machine learning methods based multi-proxy records from a maar lake southern China. Our results define five EASM LGM, which are characterized by abrupt irreversible regime shifts with median amplitude 387 ± 73 mm (24 5 %). Combined multi-model simulations existing records, attribute these cascades Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) Saharan vegetation. findings underscore nonlinear behavior its coupling other elements. The largely unknown. Here, is presented this identified.