Emissions leakage and economic losses may undermine deforestation-linked oil crop import restrictions

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-56693-1
• Publication Date: 2025-02-11T15:08:16Z
• Authors: Brinda Yarlagadda; Xin Zhao; Gokul Iyer; Thomas Wild; Nathan Hultman; Jonathan Lamontagne
• Keywords: Leakage (economics); Deforestation

Import restrictions on deforestation-linked commodities have been enacted with the goal of reducing global deforestation and emissions. However, limited market share importers imposing such potential for emissions leakage could reduce their effectiveness. Moreover, they result in negative economic implications producers consumers. We quantify future oil palm soybean import restrictions. Current EU are likely to minimal impact due EU's otherwise small declining soy demand. If extended beyond EU, lead reductions cumulative land use change (LUC) by 2050 key crop exporting regions - up 1.6% Indonesia, 2.1% rest Southeast Asia, 4.6% Argentina, 8.3% Brazil compared a no scenario. Globally, however, direct forest protection be more effective than indirect through leakage. Meanwhile, cause major exporters lose $0.1-$280 billion agricultural production revenues 2050. More broadly, our study highlights that effectiveness restriction policies will depend coordinated action across producing consuming regions.