Feasibility of meeting future battery demand via domestic cell production in Europe

• DOI: 10.1038/s41560-025-01722-y
• Publication Date: 2025-03-06T10:05:13Z
• Authors: Steffen Link; Lara Schneider; Annegret Stephan; Lukas Weymann; Patrick Plötz

Abstract Batteries are critical to mitigate global warming, with battery electric vehicles as the backbone of low-carbon transport and main driver advances demand for technology. However, future production batteries remain uncertain, while ambition strengthen national capabilities self-sufficiency is gaining momentum. In this study, leveraging probabilistic modelling, we assessed Europe’s capability meet its high-energy via domestic cell production. We found that in Europe likely exceed 1.0 TWh yr −1 by 2030 thereby outpace production, required grow at highly ambitious growth rates 31–68% . European very cover least 50–60% 2030, 90% seems feasible but far from certain. Thus, shortfalls more than not. To support prospects, stakeholders must accelerate materialization capacities reckon post-2030, reliable industrial policies supporting competitiveness.