Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia’s water tower

• DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05643-8
• Publication Date: 2023-03-01T17:03:19Z
• Authors: Qiang Zhang; Zexi Shen; Yadu Pokhrel; Daniel Farinotti; Vijay P. Singh; Chong-Yu Xu; Wenhuan Wu; Gang Wang
• Keywords: Westerlies

Water resources sustainability in High Mountain Asia (HMA) surrounding the Tibetan Plateau (TP)-known as Asia's water tower-has triggered widespread concerns because HMA protects millions of people against stress1,2. However, mechanisms behind heterogeneous trends observed terrestrial storage (TWS) over TP remain poorly understood. Here we use a Lagrangian particle dispersion model and satellite observations to attribute about 1 Gt monthly TWS decline southern during 2003-2016 westerlies-carried deficit precipitation minus evaporation (PME) from southeast North Atlantic. We further show that blocks propagation PME into central TP, causing increase by 0.5 Gt. Furthermore, warming-induced snow glacial melt well drying-induced depletion weaken blocking HMA's mountains, persistent northward expansion TP's since 2009. Future projections under two emissions scenarios verified 2020-2021 indicate that, end twenty-first century, up 84% (for scenario SSP245) 97% SSP585) could be afflicted deficits. Our findings trajectory towards unsustainable systems exacerbate downstream stress.