Regime shift in Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness

• DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05686-x
• Publication Date: 2023-03-15T17:04:34Z
• Authors: Hiroshi Sumata; Laura de Steur; Dmitry V. Divine; Mats A. Granskog; Sebastian Gerland
• Keywords: Regime shift; Fast ice

Abstract Manifestations of climate change are often shown as gradual changes in physical or biogeochemical properties 1 . Components the system, however, can show stepwise shifts from one regime to another, a nonlinear response system changing forcing 2 Here we that Arctic sea ice shifted 2007 thicker and deformed thinner more uniform cover. Continuous monitoring Fram Strait over last three decades revealed shift. After shift, fraction thick dropped by half has not recovered date. The timing shift was preceded two-step reduction residence time Basin, initiated first 2005 followed 2007. We demonstrate simple model describing stochastic process dynamic thickening explains observed thickness result reduced time. Our study highlights long-lasting impact on through its connection coupled ocean–sea processes adjacent marginal seas shelves Ocean.