Assessing the impact of human mobility to predict regional excess death in Ecuador

• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-03926-0
• Publication Date: 2022-01-10T11:04:32Z
• Authors: Leticia Cuéllar; Irene Torres; Ethan Romero-Seve...; Riya Mahesh; Nathaniel Ortega; Sarah Pungitore; Ruian Ke; Nicolas Hengartner
• Keywords: Excess mortality

Abstract COVID-19 outbreaks have had high mortality in low- and middle-income countries such as Ecuador. Human mobility is an important factor influencing the spread of diseases possibly leading to a burden disease at country level. Drastic control measures, complete lockdown, are effective epidemic controls, yet practice one hopes that partial shutdown would suffice. It open problem determine how much can be allowed while controlling outbreak. In this paper, we use statistical models relate human excess death Ecuador for demographic factors. The index provided by GRANDATA, based on mobile phone users, represents change number out-of-home events with respect benchmark date (March 2nd, 2020). study confirms global trend more men dying than expected compared women, people under 30 show less deaths expected, particularly individuals younger 20 rate reduction between 22 27%. weekly median time series shows sharp decrease immediately after national lockdown was declared March 17, 2020 progressive increase towards pre-lockdown level within two months. Relating lag its effect: first, previous three weeks decreases and, novel, found variability four prior increases deaths.