North Atlantic subpolar gyre provides downstream ocean predictability

• DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00469-1
• Publication Date: 2023-09-16T11:01:44Z
• Authors: Hongdou Fan; Leonard F. Borchert; Sebastian Brune; Vimal Koul; Johanna Baehr
• Keywords: Predictability; Subarctic climate; Temperature salinity diagrams

Abstract Slowly varying large-scale ocean circulation can provide climate predictability on decadal time scales. It has been hypothesized that the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) exerts substantial influence predictability. However, a clear identification of downstream impact SPG variations is still lacking. Using MPI-ESM-LR1.2 prediction system, we show along water pathway, dynamical link to causes salinity be considerably better predicted than temperature. By modulating slow northward propagation, subsurface memory enables skillfully up 8 years ahead. In contrast, loses temperature before penetrates into Nordic Seas, and in turn, limits only 2 This study identifies key role signals highlights how determine scales for different quantities, opening door investigating potentially associated predictions subarctic earth marine ecosystems particular.