Invasive potential of tropical fruit flies in temperate regions under climate change

• DOI: 10.1038/s42003-021-02599-9
• Publication Date: 2021-09-30T10:30:41Z
• Authors: Andrew Paul Gutie...; Luigi Ponti; Markus Neteler; David Maxwell Suc...; José Ricardo Cure
• Keywords: Tropical climate

Tropical fruit flies are considered among the most economically important invasive species detected in temperate areas of United States and European Union. Detections often trigger quarantine eradication programs that conducted without a holistic understanding threat posed. Weather-driven physiologically-based demographic models used to estimate geographic range, relative abundance, posed by four tropical tephritid (Mediterranean fly, melon oriental Mexican fly) North Central America, European-Mediterranean region under extant climate change weather (RCP8.5 A1B scenarios). Most fly propagule pressure have not been suitable for establishment, but suitability is predicted increase some with change. To meet this ongoing challenge, investments needed collect sound biological data develop mechanistic predict range abundance these other species, put policies on scientific basis.