Circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices for near-future infrastructure risk assessments

• DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2019.37
• Publication Date: 2019-03-12T14:21:13Z
• Authors: Olli Karjalainen; Juha Aalto; Miska Luoto; Sebastian Westermann; Vladimir E. Roman...; Frederick E. Nelson; Bernd Etzelmüller; Jan Hjort
• Keywords: Geohazard

Abstract Ongoing climate change is causing fundamental changes in the Arctic, some of which can be hazardous to nature and human activity. In context Earth surface systems, warming may lead rising ground temperatures thaw permafrost. This Data Descriptor presents circumpolar permafrost maps geohazard indices depicting zones varying potential for development hazards related near-surface degradation, such as subsidence. Statistical models were used predict temperature thickness seasonally thawed (active) layer using geospatial data on environmental conditions at 30 arc-second resolution. These predictions, together with factors (ground ice content, soil grain size slope gradient) affecting stability, formulate indices. Using climate-forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 8.5), extent hazard projected 2041–2060 2061–2080 time periods. The resulting (seven 24 maps) are relevant near-future infrastructure risk assessments targeting localized analyses.