Projected loss of soil organic carbon in temperate agricultural soils in the 21st century: effects of climate change and carbon input trends

• DOI: 10.1038/srep32525
• Publication Date: 2016-09-02T10:32:00Z
• Authors: Martin Wiesmeier; Christopher Poeplau; Carlos A. Sierra; Harald Maier; Cathleen Frühauf; Rico Hübner; Anna Kühnel; Peter Spörlein; Uwe Geuß; Edzard Hangen; Bernd Schilling; Margit von Lützow; Ingrid Kögel-Knabner
• Keywords: Soil carbon; Carbon fibers

Abstract Climate change and stagnating crop yields may cause a decline of SOC stocks in agricultural soils leading to considerable CO 2 emissions reduced productivity. Regional model-based projections are needed evaluate these potential risks. In this study, we simulated the future development cropland grassland Bavaria 21 st century. Soils from 51 study sites representing most important soil classes Central Europe were fractionated derived pools used initialize RothC carbon model. For each site, long-term C inputs determined using allocation method. Model runs performed for three different input scenarios as realistic range projected yield development. Our modelling approach revealed substantial decreases 11–16% under an expected mean temperature increase 3.3 °C assuming unchanged inputs. scenario 20% inputs, by 19–24%. Remarkably, even optimistic increased led 3–8%. Projected changes largely differed among investigated classes. results indicated that have 29% maintain present soils.