Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events

• DOI: 10.1038/srep45242
• Publication Date: 2017-03-27T09:59:24Z
• Authors: Michael E. Mann; Stefan Rahmstorf; Kai Kornhuber; Byron A. Steinman; Sonya K. Miller; Dim Coumou
• Keywords: Wavenumber; Forcing (mathematics); Atmospheric Circulation

Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with presence high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6–8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves phenomenon quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) synoptic-scale that becoming trapped an effective mid-latitude waveguide. Recent work suggests increase recent decades occurrence QRA-favorable conditions and weather, possibly linked amplified Arctic warming thus climate change influence. Here, we isolate specific fingerprint zonal mean surface temperature profile is conditions. State-of-the-art ("CMIP5") historical model simulations subject anthropogenic forcing display projection this mirrored multiple observational datasets. Both models observations suggest signal has only recently emerged from background noise natural variability.