Malawi at the Crossroads: Does the Fear of Contracting COVID-19 Affect the Propensity to Vote?

• DOI: 10.1057/s41287-020-00353-1
• Publication Date: 2021-01-04T18:03:40Z
• Authors: Gowokani Chijere ...; Boniface Dulani; Lonjezo Sithole; Joseph J. Chunga; Witness Alfonso; John Tengatenga
• Keywords: Endogeneity; Turnout; Presidential election; Instrumental variable; Pandemic; Affect

Abstract The new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has disrupted ways of life, including political processes. In this paper, we assess the effect of own perceived risk of catching COVID-19 on willingness to vote. The paper draws from a nationally representative survey of adult Malawians (n=1155). Our main method used instrumental variables to account for potential endogeneity. Findings show that 63% of Malawians thought that they are likely to catch COVID-19. Notwithstanding the COVID19 risk, 86% were willing to vote. The regression analysis suggests that an individual’s perceived risk of catching COVID-19 is associated with lower likelihood of voting (β=-0.096; p<0.05). The results suggest that voter turnout in Malawi’s fresh presidential election may have been highly affected by the perceived risk of catching COVID-19. The policy implication is that instituting and enforcing primary preventive measures may help reduce the perceived risk of catching COVID19 and mitigate voter apathy.