The effect of climate variation on agro-pastoral production in Africa

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0600057103
• Publication Date: 2006-02-22T04:03:47Z
• Authors: Leif Christian Stige; Jørn Stave; Kung-Sik Chan; Lorenzo Ciannelli; Nathalie Pettorelli; Michael Glantz; Hans R. Herren; Nils Chr. Stenseth
• Keywords: Standing crop

Using national crop and livestock production records from 1961–2003 satellite-derived data on pasture greenness 1982–2003 we show that the productivity of crops, livestock, pastures in Africa is predictably associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation North Atlantic Oscillation. The causal relations these results are partly understandable through associations between atmospheric fluctuations African rainfall. range explained among-year variation as a whole corresponds to nutritional requirements for ≈20 million people. Results suggest reduced food if global climate changes toward more Niño-like conditions, most models predict. Maize southern strongly affected by events. Management measures include annual selection storage strategies response Oscillation-based predictions next growing season.