Optimizing the control of disease infestations at the landscape scale

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0607900104
• Publication Date: 2007-03-14T00:38:23Z
• Authors: Graeme A. Forster; Christopher A. Gi...
• Keywords: Robustness

Using a contact-process model for the spread of crop disease over regional scale, we examine importance time scale control with respect to cost epidemic. The costs include direct treating infected sites as well indirect incurred through lost yield. We first use mean-field approximation derive analytical results optimal treatment regimes that minimize total distinguish short- and long-term epidemics. show seasonal (short scale) requires extreme treatment, either all or none switching between two at some stage during season. strategy an intermediate level in near eradication disease. also demonstrate incorporating economic constraints by deriving critical relationship epidemiological parameters determine qualitative nature strategy. set strategies is summarized policy plot, which can be used regime given prior knowledge parameters. Finally, test robustness results, derived from approximation, on spatially explicit contact process implementation errors misestimation crucial