Synchronous cycles of domestic dog rabies in sub-Saharan Africa and the impact of control efforts

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0609122104
• Publication Date: 2007-04-24T15:46:17Z
• Authors: Katie Hampson; Jonathan Dushoff; John Bingham; Gideon Brückner; Y. H. Ali; Andy Dobson
• Keywords: Population Density; 0303 health sciences; Time Factors; Rabies; Incidence; Viral Vaccines; Models, Biological; 3. Good health; 03 medical and health sciences; Dogs; Animals, Domestic; Animals; Dog Diseases; Africa South of the Sahara

Rabies is a fatal neurological pathogen that persistent problem throughout the developing world where it spread primarily by domestic dogs. Although disease has been extensively studied in wildlife populations Europe and North America, dynamics of rabies dog almost entirely neglected. Here, we demonstrate epidemics southern eastern Africa cycle with period 3–6 years show significant synchrony across region. The observed shorter than predictions based on epidemiological parameters for We find evidence prevention measures, including vaccination, are affected prevalence simple model intervention responses can capture periodicity host dynamics. suggest movement infectious or latent animals combined coordinated control may be important coupling generating at continental scale. These findings have implications prediction control: large-scale importance canine will require sustained efforts political boundaries.