Irrelevant events affect voters' evaluations of government performance

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1007420107
• Publication Date: 2010-07-07T02:23:58Z
• Authors: Andrew J. Healy; Neil Malhotra; Cecilia Hyunjung Mo
• Keywords: Affect; Surprise; Presidential election; Basketball

Does information irrelevant to government performance affect voting behavior? If so, how does this help us understand the mechanisms underlying voters' retrospective assessments of candidates' in office? To precisely test for effects information, we explore electoral impact local college football games just before an election, events that has nothing do with and which no response would be expected. We find a win 10 d Election Day causes incumbent receive additional 1.61 percentage points vote Senate, gubernatorial, presidential elections, effect being larger teams stronger fan support. In addition conducting placebo tests based on postelection games, demonstrate these by using betting market's estimate team's probability winning game it occurs isolate surprise component outcomes. corroborate aggregate-level results survey conducted during 2009 NCAA men's basketball tournament, where surprising wins losses approval. An experiment embedded within also indicates personal well-being may influence decisions subconscious level. making people more aware reasons their current state mind reduces have opinions. These findings underscore subtle power shaping important real-world suggest ways decision can improved.