Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222463110
• Publication Date: 2013-12-17T02:44:35Z
• Authors: Cynthia Rosenzweig; Joshua Elliott; Delphine Deryng; Alex C. Ruane; Christoph Müller; Almut Arneth; Kenneth J. Boote; Christian Folberth; Michael Glotter; Nikolay Khabarov; Kathleen Neumann; Franziska Piontek; Thomas A. M. Pugh; Erwin Schmid; Elke Stehfest; Hong Yang; James W. Jones
• Keywords: Climate extremes

Significance Agriculture is arguably the sector most affected by climate change, but assessments differ and are thus difficult to compare. We provide a globally consistent, protocol-based, multimodel change assessment for major crops with explicit characterization of uncertainty. Results agreement indicate strong negative effects from especially at higher levels warming low latitudes where developing countries concentrated. Simulations that consider nitrogen stress result in much more severe impacts implications adaptation planning.