Radiation dose rates now and in the future for residents neighboring restricted areas of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1315684111
• Publication Date: 2014-02-25T02:44:15Z
• Authors: Kouji H. Harada; Tamon Niisoe; Mie Imanaka; Tomoyuki Takahashi; Katsumi Amako; Yukiko Fujii; Masatoshi Kanameishi; Kenji Ohse; Yasumichi Nakai; Tamami Nishikawa; Yuuichi Saito; Hiroko Sakamoto; Keiko Ueyama; Kumiko Hisaki; Eiji Ohara; Tokiko Inoue; Kanako Yamamoto; Yukiyo Matsuoka; Hitomi Ohata; Kazue Toshima; Ayumi Okada; Hitomi Sato; Toyomi Kuwamori; Hiroko Tani; Reiko Suzuki; Mai Kashikura; Michiko Nezu; Yoko Miyachi; Fusako Arai; Masanori Kuwamori; Sumiko Harada; Akira Ohmori; Hirohiko Ishikawa; Akio Koizumi
• Keywords: Geography; Environmental Exposure; Radiation Dosage; 7. Clean energy; 3. Good health; 03 medical and health sciences; 0302 clinical medicine; Japan; Cesium Radioisotopes; Radiation Monitoring; Risk Factors; 13. Climate action; Neoplasms; Fukushima Nuclear Accident; Humans; Forecasting

Significance There is a potential risk of human exposure to radiation owing to the March 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. In this study, we evaluated radiation dose rates from deposited radiocesium in three areas neighboring the restricted and evacuation areas in Fukushima. The mean annual radiation dose rate in 2012 associated with the accident was 0.89–2.51 mSv/y. The mean dose rate estimates in 2022 are comparable with variations of the average 2 mSv/y background radiation exposure from natural radionuclides in Japan. Furthermore, the extra lifetime integrated dose after 2012 is estimated to elevate lifetime risk of cancer incidence by a factor of 1.03 to 1.05 at most, which is unlikely to be epidemiologically detectable.