Spread of Zika virus in the Americas

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1620161114
• Publication Date: 2017-04-26T00:40:13Z
• Authors: Qian Zhang; Kaiyuan Sun; Matteo Chinazzi; Ana Pastore y Pio...; Natalie E. Dean; Diana Patricia Rojas; Stefano Merler; Dina Mistry; Piero Poletti; Luca Rossi; Margaret Bray; M. Elizabeth Hall...; Ira M. Longini; Alessandro Vespig...
• Keywords: Zika Virus

We use a data-driven global stochastic epidemic model to analyze the spread of Zika virus (ZIKV) in Americas. The has high spatial and temporal resolution integrates real-world demographic, human mobility, socioeconomic, temperature, vector density data. estimate that first introduction ZIKV Brazil likely occurred between August 2013 April 2014 (90% credible interval). provide simulated profiles incident infections for several countries Americas through February 2017. is characterized by slow growth seasonal heterogeneity, attributable dynamics mosquito characteristics mobility populations. project expected timing number pregnancies infected with during trimester estimates microcephaly cases assuming different levels risk as reported empirical retrospective studies. Our approach represents modeling effort aimed at understanding potential magnitude it can be potentially used template analysis future mosquito-borne epidemics.