Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2002616117
• Publication Date: 2020-03-14T00:04:38Z
• Authors: Chad R. Wells; Pratha Sah; Seyed M. Moghadas; Abhishek Pandey; Affan Shoukat; Yaning Wang; Zheng Wang; Lauren A. Meyers; Burton H. Singer; Alison P. Galvani
• Keywords: Exportation; Mainland; Coronavirus

The novel coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) in mainland China has rapidly spread across the globe. Within 2 mo since was first reported on December 31, 2019, a total of 566 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS CoV-2) cases have been confirmed 26 other countries. Travel restrictions and border control measures enforced countries to limit outbreak. We estimate impact these investigate role airport travel network global COVID-19 Our results show that daily risk exporting at least single SARS CoV-2 case from via international exceeded 95% January 13, 2020. found 779 (95% CI: 632 967) would exported by February 15, 2020 without any or lockdowns Chinese government averted 70.5% 68.8 72.0%) cases. In addition, during three half weeks implementation, decreased rate exportation 81.3% 80.5 82.1%), average. At this early stage epidemic, reduction could delay importation into cities unaffected outbreak, buying time coordinate an appropriate public health response.