The implications of silent transmission for the control of COVID-19 outbreaks

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2008373117
• Publication Date: 2020-07-07T00:26:22Z
• Authors: Seyed M. Moghadas; Meagan C. Fitzpat...; Pratha Sah; Abhishek Pandey; Affan Shoukat; Burton H. Singer; Alison P. Galvani
• Keywords: Contact tracing; Isolation; Pandemic

Since the emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), unprecedented movement restrictions and social distancing measures have been implemented worldwide. The socioeconomic repercussions fueled calls to lift these measures. In absence population-wide restrictions, isolation infected individuals is key curtailing transmission. However, effectiveness symptom-based in preventing a resurgence depends on extent presymptomatic asymptomatic We evaluate contribution transmission based recent individual-level data regarding infectiousness prior symptom onset proportion among all infections. found that majority incidences may be attributable silent from combination stage Consequently, even if symptomatic cases are isolated, vast outbreak nonetheless unfold. further quantified effect isolating infections addition cases, finding over one-third must isolated suppress future below 1% population. Our results indicate supplemented by rapid contact tracing testing identifies order safely current minimize risk resurgence.