Fluctuating optimum and temporally variable selection on breeding date in birds and mammals

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2009003117
• Publication Date: 2020-12-01T01:32:19Z
• Authors: Pierre de Villeme...; Anne Charmantier; Debora Arlt; Pierre Bize; Patricia Brekke; Lyanne Brouwer; Andrew Cockburn; Steeve D. Côté; F. Stephen Dobson; Simon R. Evans; Marco Festa-Bianchet; Marlène Gamelon; Sandra Hamel; Johann Hegelbach; Kurt Jerstad; Bart Kempenaers; Loeske E. B. Kruuk; Jouko Kumpula; Thomas Kvalnes; Andrew G. McAdam; S. Eryn McFarlane; Michael B. Morrissey; Tomas Pärt; Josephine M. Pemb...; Anna Qvarnström; Ole Wiggo Røstad; Julia Schroeder; Juan Carlos Senar; Ben C. Sheldon; Martijn van de Pol; Marcel E. Visser; Nathaniel T. Whee...; Jarle Tufto; Luis-Miguel Chevin
• Keywords: Time Factors; Australian Research Council; Animal Ecology and Physiology; Natural selection; QH301 Biology; Datasets as Topic; Fluctuating environment; Phenotypic plasticity; adaptation; phenotypic plasticity; 59 - Zoologia; NE/S010335/1; National Science Foundation DEB-0089473; Mammals; Phenotic plasticity; Multidisciplinary; Fitness landscape; fluctuating environment; Swedish Research Council VR; [SDV.BID.EVO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Populations and Evolution [q-bio.PE]; Reproduction; Selecció natural; Leverhulme Trust UK; Plan_S-Compliant_NO; Biological Evolution; Spanish Research Council CGL-2016-79568-C3-3-P; BB/L006081/1; fluctuating enviroment; Ciència i tecnologia; NE/K006274/1; international; articles; 590 Animals (Zoology); 678140-FluctEvol; Aves; European Research Council; Research Council of Norway 223257; 570; fitness landscape; 612; Adaptació animal; ERC AdG250164; Birds; QH301; 10127 Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies; Reproducció; Animals; Adaptation; Selection, Genetic; ZA4450; Animal adaptation; 1000 Multidisciplinary; ZA4450 Databases; Ocells; Models, Genetic; Selección natural; Natural Environment Research Council (NERC); DAS; Reproducción; Adaptación de los animales; meta-analysis; Meta-analysis; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC); Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC); 570 Life sciences; biology; ta1181; Other; Genetic Fitness; Mamífers

Significance Many ecological and evolutionary processes strongly depend on the way natural selection varies over time. However, a gap remains when trying to connect theoretical predictions to empirical work on this question: Most theory assumes that adaptation involves tracking a moving optimum phenotype through time, but this is seldom estimated empirically. Here, we have assembled a large database of wild bird and mammal populations, to estimate patterns of fluctuations in the optimum breeding date and its influence on the variability of natural selection. We find that optimum fluctuations are prevalent. However, their influence on temporal variance in natural selection is partly buffered by tracking of the optimum phenotype through individual phenotypic plasticity.