The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2013182117
• Publication Date: 2020-11-10T01:33:32Z
• Authors: Rachel E. Baker; Sang Woo Park; Wenchang Yang; Gabriel A. Vecchi; C. Jessica E. Met...; Bryan T. Grenfell
• Keywords: Transmissibility (structural dynamics); Endemic diseases; Pandemic

Significance Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social distancing, reduce not only COVID-19 cases but also other circulating infections influenza and RSV. The susceptible population for these will increase while NPIs are in place. Using models fit to historic of RSV influenza, we project large future outbreaks both diseases may occur following a period extended NPIs. These outbreaks, which reach peak numbers the winter, could burden healthcare systems.