Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2019284118
• Publication Date: 2021-06-08T19:38:06Z
• Authors: Thomas P. Smith; Seth Flaxman; Amanda S. Gallinat; Sylvia P. Kinosian; Michael Stemkovski; H. Juliette T. Unwin; Oliver J. Watson; Charles Whittaker; Lorenzo Cattarino; Ilaria Dorigatti; Michael Tristem; William D. Pearse
• Keywords: Population Density; 0301 basic medicine; 330; SARS-CoV-2; Movement; Basic Reproduction Number; COVID-19; Biological Sciences; United States; 3. Good health; Cold Temperature; 03 medical and health sciences; 13. Climate action; Communicable Disease Control; Humans; Seasons; Forecasting

As COVID-19 continues to spread across the world, it is increasingly important understand factors that influence its transmission. Seasonal variation driven by responses changing environment has been shown affect transmission intensity of several coronaviruses. However, impact on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains largely unknown, and thus seasonal a source uncertainty in forecasts SARS-CoV-2 Here we address this issue assessing association temperature, humidity, ultraviolet radiation, population density with estimates rate (R). Using data from United States, explore correlates US states using comparative regression integrative epidemiological modeling. We find policy intervention ("lockdown") reductions individuals' mobility are major predictors rates, but, their absence, lower temperatures higher densities correlated increased Our results show summer weather cannot be considered substitute for mitigation policies, but autumn winter may lead an increase absence interventions or behavioral changes. outline how information improve forecasting COVID-19, reveal future dynamics, inform policies.