Demographic perspectives on the rise of longevity

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2019536118
• Publication Date: 2021-02-10T21:02:44Z
• Authors: James W. Vaupel; Francisco Villavi...; Marie-Pier Berger...
• Keywords: Pace; Frontier; Life span

This article reviews some key strands of demographic research on past trends in human longevity and explores possible future life expectancy at birth. Demographic data age-specific mortality are used to estimate expectancy, validated exceptional spans study the maximum length life. In countries doing best each year, started increase around 1840 a pace almost 2.5 y per decade. trend has continued until present. Contrary classical evolutionary theories senescence contrary predictions many experts, frontier survival is advancing higher ages. Furthermore, individual becoming more equal, reducing inequalities, with octogenarians nonagenarians accounting for most deaths highest expectancy. If current progress continues, children born this millennium will celebrate their 100th birthday. Considerable uncertainty, however, clouds forecasts: Life span might very little if all, or rise much faster than past. Substantial been made over three decades deepening understanding how long humans have lived they live. The social, economic, health, cultural, political consequences further increases so significant that development powerful methods forecasting priority.