Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States
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DOI:
10.1073/pnas.2113561119
Publication Date:
2022-04-08T18:14:36Z
AUTHORS (295)
ABSTRACT
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory COVID-19 pandemic in United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between scientific modeling community both general public decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such healthcare staffing needs, school closures, allocation medical supplies. Starting April 2020, US Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org/ ) collected, disseminated, synthesized tens millions specific from more than 90 different academic, industry, independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast combined dozens groups every week provided most consistently accurate incident deaths due to at state national level 2020 through October 2021. The performance 27 individual submitted complete throughout this year showed high variability skill across time, geospatial units, horizons. Two-thirds evaluated better accuracy naïve baseline model. degraded made further into future, with error 20-wk horizon three five times larger when predicting 1-wk horizon. This project underscores role collaboration active coordination governmental public-health agencies, academic teams, industry partners can play developing modern capabilities support local, state, federal response outbreaks.
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