North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2116691118
• Publication Date: 2022-01-04T22:20:19Z
• Authors: Shubhi Sharma; Robert Andrus; Yves Bergeron; Michal Bogdziewicz; Don C. Bragg; Dale Brockway; Natalie L. Cleavitt; Benoit Courbaud; Adrian J. Das; Michael Dietze; Timothy J. Fahey; Jerry F. Franklin; Gregory S. Gilbert; Cathryn H. Greenberg; Qinfeng Guo; Janneke Hille Ris...; Ines Ibanez; Jill F. Johnstone; Christopher L. Ki...; Johannes M. H. Knops; Walter D. Koenig; Georges Kunstler; Jalene M. LaMontagne; Diana Macias; Emily Moran; Jonathan A. Myers; Robert Parmenter; Ian S. Pearse; Renata Poulton-Ka...; Miranda D. Redmond; Chantal D. Reid; Kyle C. Rodman; C. Lane Scher; William H. Schles...; Michael A. Steele; Nathan L. Stephenson; Jennifer J. Swenson; Margaret Swift; Thomas T. Veblen; Amy V. Whipple; Thomas G. Whitham; Andreas P. Wion; Christopher W. Wo...; Roman Zlotin; James S. Clark
• Keywords: 0106 biological sciences; 330; Geography; [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio]; Climate Change; Uncertainty; tree migration; Biological Sciences; 15. Life on land; 01 natural sciences; 300; Trees; Climate Action; forest regeneration; Fertility; climate change; seed production; [SDE]Environmental Sciences; North America; climate change; forest regeneration; seed production; tree migration; Ecosystem

Significance Suitable habitats for forest trees may be shifting fast with recent climate change. Studies tracking the shift in suitable habitat for forests have been inconclusive, in part because responses in tree fecundity and seedling establishment can diverge. Analysis of both components at a continental scale reveals a poleward migration of northern species that is in progress now. Recruitment and fecundity both contribute to poleward spread in the West, while fecundity limits spread in the East, despite a fecundity hotspot in the Southeast. Fecundity limitation on population spread can confront conservation and management efforts with persistent disequilibrium between forest diversity and rapid climate change.