Probability models to facilitate a declaration of pest-free status, with special reference to tsetse (Diptera: Glossinidae)

• DOI: 10.1079/ber2004331
• Publication Date: 2005-02-10T00:58:56Z
• Authors: H.J. Barclay; J.W. Hargrove
• Keywords: Glossinidae; Declaration

A methodology is presented to facilitate a declaration that an area 'pest-free' following eradication campaign against insect pest. This involves probability models assess null trapping results and also growth help verify, waiting period, pests were not present when control was stopped. Two are developed calculate the of negative if in fact insects present. If this sufficiently low, then hypothesis rejected. The depend on knowledge efficiency attractiveness traps. To verify model, period required see rebound occurs. incipient but non-detectable population remains after measures discontinued, should occur. Using rate increase examined starting from one gravid female or male female. An example given for tsetse which both means confidence limits calculated 24 reproductive periods terminated. no detected, can be made.