The Global Burden of Measles in the Year 2000—A Model that Uses Country‐Specific Indicators

• DOI: 10.1086/368114
• Publication Date: 2003-08-04T17:51:31Z
• Authors: Claudia E. Stein; Maureen Birmingham; Mary Kurian; Philippe Duclos; Peter Strebel
• Keywords: Adult; Models, Statistical; Adolescent; Immunization Programs; Incidence; Measles Vaccine; Vaccination; Infant; World Health Organization; Models, Biological; 3. Good health; 03 medical and health sciences; 0302 clinical medicine; Measles virus; Child, Preschool; Humans; Quality-Adjusted Life Years; Child; Disease Notification; Measles

The estimation of the global burden of measles is challenging in the absence of reliable and comparable surveillance systems worldwide. A static model is described that enables estimation of measles morbidity, mortality, and disability for the year 2000 on the basis of country-specific information (i.e., demographic profile, vaccine coverage, and estimates of case-fatality ratios). This approach estimated a global incidence of 39.9 million measles cases, 777,000 deaths, and 28 million disability-adjusted life years. The World Health Organization regions of Africa and Southeast Asia had 70% of incident cases and 84% of measles-related deaths; 11 countries alone (Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Somalia, Uganda) account for 66% of deaths. This approach quantifies the measles burden by considering country-specific indicators, which can be updated, permitting an assessment of country, regional, and global changes in the burden associated with measles infection.