Beyond the forecast: knowledge gaps to anticipate disasters in armed conflict areas with high forced displacement

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2023
• Publication Date: 2024-01-18T22:30:30Z
• Authors: Catalina Jaime; Erin Coughlan de ...; Maarten van Aalst; Evan Easton-Calabria
• Keywords: Vulnerability; Armed Conflict; Social conflict

Abstract Although conflict-affected populations are often exposed to and severely impacted by disasters, little is known about their perceptions practices concerning early warning action (EWEA) or how EWEA strategies can protect communities affected conflict- climate-related disasters. This particularly problematic as, due the multiple challenges posed conflict compound crises in these contexts, warnings of weather hazards do not translate actions. comprehensive literature review examined 384 peer reviewed papers produced between 2004 2022, focused on 20 countries most non-international armed climate hazards. paper answers question : what state knowledge for high levels forced displacement? Findings demonstrate that research focuses science rather than social across six elements value chain: 1. analysis, 2. understanding vulnerability exposure, 3. communication dissemination, 4. forecasting availability monitoring, 5. planning, 6. financing systems. In total, 75.65% studies hazard forecast availability, monitoring. There has been a strong increase academic since 2004. However, we identify this Ethiopia, Pakistan, Nigeria which, although conflict, also have higher level economic development stability. contrast, there remaining countries. Across all thematic areas, lack consideration dynamics research. contributes evidence need recognize people disaster risk reduction, as called Sendai Framework Action midterm review, with aim enhancing investments enable tailored approaches appropriate states.