Estimating Fmsy from an ensemble of data sources to account for density dependence in Northeast Atlantic fish stocks

• DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsaa175
• Publication Date: 2020-09-04T19:14:27Z
• Authors: Henrik Sparholt; Bjarte Bogstad; Villy Christensen; Jeremy Collie; Rob van Gemert; Ray Hilborn; Jan Horbowy; Daniel Howell; Michael C Melnychuk; Søren Anker Pedersen; Claus Reedtz Spar...; Gunnar Stefansson; Petur Steingrund
• Keywords: ecosystem; meta-analysis; 0106 biological sciences; 570; fisheries; F msy; 14. Life underwater; density dependent; 01 natural sciences; management

Abstract A new approach for estimating the fishing mortality benchmark Fmsy (fishing pressure that corresponds to maximum sustainable yield) is proposed. The approach includes density-dependent factors. The analysis considers 53 data-rich fish stocks in the Northeast Atlantic. The new Fmsy values are estimated from an ensemble of data sources: (i) applying traditional surplus production models on time-series of historic stock sizes, fishing mortalities, and catches from the current annual assessments; (ii) dynamic pool model (e.g. age-structured models) estimation for stocks where data on density-dependent growth, maturity, and mortality are available; (iii) extracts from multispecies and ecosystem literature for stocks where well-tested estimates are available; (iv) the “Great Experiment” where fishing pressure on the demersal stocks in the Northeast Atlantic slowly increased for half a century; and (v) linking Fmsy to life history parameters. The new Fmsy values are substantially higher (average equal to 0.38 year−1) than the current Fmsy values (average equal to 0.26 year−1) estimated in stock assessments and used by management, similar to the fishing pressure in the 1960s, and about 30% lower than the fishing pressure in 1970–2000.