Accounting for non-stationary stock–recruitment relationships in the development of MSY-based reference points

• DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsaa176
• Publication Date: 2020-09-04T19:14:27Z
• Authors: Fan Zhang; Paul M Regular; Laura Wheeland; Rick M Rideout; M Joanne Morgan
• Keywords: Maximum sustainable yield; Stock assessment

Asbtract Stock–recruitment relationships (SRRs) may vary over time due to ecological and anthropogenic impacts, challenging traditional approaches of calculating maximum sustainable yield (MSY)-based reference points that assume constant population traits. We compare seven methods calculate MSY, FMSY BMSY by modelling constant, stochastic (uncorrelated), autocorrelated SRRs using simulations two case studies [Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) American plaice (Hippoglossoides platessoides) on the Grand Bank off Newfoundland, Canada]. Results indicated method used model strongly affected temporal pattern recruitment projection, variations generated were more similar observed patterns. When productivity had low-frequency large-magnitude variations, greater MSY estimates than or SRRs, while no consistent was detected. In studies, produced asymmetric between fishing mortality yield, with higher risk overfishing going beyond FMSY. Overall, our results suggest caution should be taken when MSY-based in highly dynamic ecosystems, correctly accounting for non-stationary dynamics could, therefore, lead fisheries.