Guadalupe fur seal pup production predicted from annual variations of sea surface temperature in the southern California Current Ecosystem

• DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsac097
• Publication Date: 2022-05-10T03:30:00Z
• Authors: Ariadna Juárez-Ruiz; Mario A Pardo; Julio C Hernández...; Fernando R Elorri...; María de los Ánge...; Tenaya Norris; Emilio Beier; Gisela Heckel
• Keywords: Fur seal

Abstract We evaluated the effects of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in southern California Current Ecosystem on annual Guadalupe fur seal (Arctocephalus townsendi) pup production, a species recovering from near extinction. Pup counts 1991 to 1993 and 2006 2019 were used estimate deviations long-term trend as proxy for population's reproductive success. estimated interannual SSTA subtraction linear spanning 1991–2019 778,000 km2 area, which represents primary foraging range adult females. The increase production followed an exponential curve ( ${\rm{R}}_{\rm{B}}^2 = {\rm{\ }}1$), typical recovery phase. this responded during gestation period cubic polynomial function }}0.837$), revealing that < −0.2°C between ∼0.6 1.38°C increased subsequent breeding season, whereas normal slightly warm (−0.17 0.6°C) extreme (>1.4°C) decreased counts, arguably resulting low prey availability quality. This model allowed us years without observations, needed understand environmental variability influence process species, therefore constitutes practical tool its conservation management.