Using cross-correlations to assess the relationship between time-lagged pressure and state indicators: an exemplary analysis of North Sea fish population indicators

• DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fss015
• Publication Date: 2012-02-13T20:46:06Z
• Authors: Wolfgang Nikolaus...; Vanessa Stelzenmü...; Heino Ove Fock
• Keywords: Fish stock; Haddock; Stock assessment; Overfishing

Abstract Probst, W. N., Stelzenmüller, V., and Fock, H. 2012. Using cross-correlations to assess the relationship between time-lagged pressure state indicators: an exemplary analysis of North Sea fish population indicators. – ICES Journal Marine Science, 69: 670–681. A sustainable ecosystem-based management, as postulated by European Union-Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), requires a sound understanding cause–effect relationships human pressures ecosystem states. In this study, are used introduce protocol for To perform meaningful cross-correlations, time-series indicator should be prewhitened fitting autoregressive integrated moving average models time-series. This study provides some theoretical examples on implications non-prewhitened exemplifies use compare pressure–state well-established suite vs. new proposed under MSFD. The established is fishing mortality (F) spawning-stock biomass (SSB), F 95% percentile length frequency distribution (L95). L95 aims characterize proportion large individuals within population. SSB significant all four analysed species (cod, haddock, saithe, plaice), correlated with cod, saithe. However, was also influenced annual survey catch recruitment.