Chronic Disease Score as a Predictor of Hospitalization

• DOI: 10.1097/00001648-200205000-00016
• Publication Date: 2003-04-28T07:36:00Z
• Authors: Kathleen G. Putnam; Diana S. M. Buist; Paul Fishman; Susan E. Andrade; Myde Boles; Gary A. Chase; Michael J. Goodman; Jerry H. Gurwitz; Richard Platt; Marsha A. Raebel; K. Arnold Chan
• Keywords: Decile; Odds; Conditional logistic regression

Background. The Chronic Disease Score is a risk-adjustment metric based on age, gender, and history of dispensed drugs. We compared four versions the score for their ability to predict hospitalization among members eight health maintenance organizations nationwide. Methods. study included 29,247 women age 45 years older. Logistic regression models were constructed using rank quintile decile indicators each scores as predictors during year after 1 October 1995. Discrimination model fit several properties including C statistic odds ratio comparing highest with lowest quantiles. Results. All performed similarly, version that predicts total healthcare cost, proposed by Clark et al. (Med Care 1995;33:783–795), performing somewhat better than other three. overall risk was 12%. Individuals higher quantile ranks had hospitalization. Among versions, ranged from 4% 27–29% decile. Odds ratios deciles 8.9 10.2. Conclusions. therefore may be useful indicator baseline comorbidity control confounding.