The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak

• DOI: 10.1101/2020.02.09.20021261
• Publication Date: 2020-02-11T21:15:19Z
• Authors: Matteo Chinazzi; Jessica T. Davis; Marco Ajelli; Corrado Gioannini; Maria Litvinova; Stefano Merler; Ana Pastore y Pio...; Luca Rossi; Kaiyuan Sun; Cécile Viboud; Xinyue Xiong; Hongjie Yu; M. Elizabeth Hall...; Ira M. Longini; Alessandro Vespig...
• Keywords: Basic reproduction number; Contact tracing; Mainland; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak

Abstract Motivated by the rapid spread of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Mainland China, we use global metapopulation disease transmission model to project impact both domestic and international travel limitations on national epidemic. The is calibrated evidence internationally imported cases before implementation quarantine Wuhan. By assuming generation time 7.5 days, reproduction number estimated be 2.4 [90% CI 2.2-2.6]. median estimate for ban January 23, 2020 58,956 40,759 - 87,471] Wuhan 3,491 1,924 7,360] other locations China. shows that as most Chinese cities had already received considerable infected cases, delays overall epidemic progression only 3 5 days. has more marked effect at scale, where case importations reduced 80% until end February. Modeling results also indicate sustained 90% restrictions from China modestly affect trajectory unless combined with 50% or higher reduction community.