Assessing the Tendency of 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) Outbreak in China

• DOI: 10.1101/2020.02.09.20021444
• Publication Date: 2020-02-11T21:35:11Z
• Authors: Qinghe Liu; Zhicheng Liu; Deqiang Li; Zefei Gao; Junkai Zhu; Junyan Yang; Qiao Wang
• Keywords: Inflection point; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak

ABSTRACT Since December 1, 2019, the spread of COVID-19 is increasing every day. It particularly important to predict trend epidemic for timely adjustment economy and industries. We proposed a Flow-SEHIR model in this paper perform trends 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) China. The results show that number daily confirmed new cases reaches inflection point on Feb. 6 – 10 outside Hubei. For maximum temporal infected number, predicted peak value China except Hubei was estimated be 21721 (95% CI: 18764 - 24929). arrival time March 3 9. patients most areas will from 12 15. values more than 73.5% provinces or regions controlled within 1000. According estimations data evacuation nationals Wuhan, real cumulative 403481 143284 1166936).