Interplay of global multi-scale human mobility, social distancing, government interventions, and COVID-19 dynamics

• DOI: 10.1101/2020.06.05.20123760
• Publication Date: 2020-06-07T14:05:14Z
• Authors: Aniruddha Adiga; Lijing Wang; Adam Sadilek; Ashish Tendulkar; Srinivasan Venkat...; Anil Vullikanti; Gaurav Aggarwal; Alok Talekar; Xue Ben; Jiangzhuo Chen; Bryan Lewis; Samarth Swarup; Milind Tambe; Madhav Marathe
• Keywords: Social distance; Geographic mobility; Social Mobility

This work quantifies mobility changes observed during the different phases of pandemic world-wide at multiple resolutions -- county, state, country using an anonymized aggregate map that captures population flows between geographic cells size 5 km 2 . As we overlay global with epidemic incidence curves and dates government interventions, observe as case counts rose, fell has since then seen a slow but steady increase in flows. Further, order to understand mixing within region, propose new metric quantify effect social distancing on basis mobility.Taking two very countries sampled from spectrum, We analyze detail patterns United States (US) India. carry out counterfactual analysis delaying lockdown show one week delay would have doubled reported number cases US Finally, college students returning back school for fall semester COVID-19 dynamics surrounding community. employ data recent university outbreak (reported August 16, 2020) infer possible R eff values combined daily prevalence census obtain estimate might arrive campus. find maintaining existing levels be effective mitigating extra seeding cases. However, potential behavioral change increased interaction amongst (30% ) along can by 20% over period month encompassing county. To our knowledge, this is first model near real-time, interplay human mobility, public policies across spatial scale.