Should international borders re-open? The impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 importation risk

• DOI: 10.1101/2020.10.11.20211060
• Publication Date: 2020-10-14T16:00:59Z
• Authors: Jessica Liebig; Kamran Najeebullah; Raja Jurdak; Ahmad El Shoghri; Dean Paini
• Keywords: Pace; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak

ABSTRACT Novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread across the world at an unprecedented pace, reaching over 200 countries and territories in less than three months. In response, many governments denied entry to travellers arriving from various affected by virus. While several industries continue experience economic losses due imposed interventions, it is unclear whether different travel restrictions were successful reducing COVID-19 importations. Here we develop a comprehensive framework model daily importations, considering bans. We quantify temporal effects of elucidate relationship between incidence rates other countries, flows expected number importations into country under investigation. As cases study, evaluate bans enforced Australian government. find that international Australia lowered 87.68% (83.39 - 91.35) January June 2020. The presented can further be used gain insights how expect should borders re-open. Authorities may consider information when planning phased re-opening borders.