The effect of eviction moratoria on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2

• DOI: 10.1101/2020.10.27.20220897
• Publication Date: 2020-11-01T16:00:10Z
• Authors: Anjalika Nande; Justin Sheen; Emma L Walters; Brennan Klein; Matteo Chinazzi; Andrei Gheorghe; Ben Adlam; Julianna Shinnick; Maria Florencia T...; Samuel V Scarpino; Alessandro Vespig...; Andrew J Greenlee; Daniel Schneider; Michael Z Levy; Alison L Hill
• Keywords: Eviction; Pandemic

Abstract Massive unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic could result in an eviction crisis US cities. Here we model effect of evictions on SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, simulating viral transmission within and among households a theoretical metropolitan area. We recreate range urban epidemic trajectories project course under two counterfactual scenarios, one which strict moratorium is place enforced, another are allowed to resume at baseline or increased rates. find, across that lead significant increases infections. Applying our Philadelphia using locally-specific parameters shows increase especially profound models consider realistically heterogenous cities both contacts occur more frequently poorer neighborhoods. Our results provide basis assess municipal moratoria show policies stem warranted important component control.