Estimation of the severeness rate, death rate, household attack rate and the total number of COVID-19 cases based on 16 115 Polish surveillance records

• DOI: 10.1101/2020.10.29.20222513
• Publication Date: 2020-11-03T22:50:18Z
• Authors: Barbara Adamik; Marek Bawiec; Viktor Bezborodov; Przemyslaw Biecek; Wolfgang Bock; Marcin Bodych; Jan Pablo Burgard; Tyll Krueger; Agata Migalska; ; Tomasz Ożański; Barbara Pabjan; Magdalena Rosińska; Malgorzata Sadkow...; Piotr Sobczyk; Ewa Szczurek
• Keywords: Pandemic; Attack rate

Abstract Background Estimating the actual number of COVID-19 infections is crucial for steering through pandemic crisis. It is, however, notoriously difficult, as many cases have no or only mild symptoms. Surveillance data in-household secondary offers unbiased samples prevalence estimation. Methods We analyse 16 115 Polish surveillance records to obtain key figures pandemic. propose conservative upper and lower bound estimators SARS-CoV-2 infections. Further, we estimate age-dependent bounds on severe case rate, death attack rate. Results By maximum likelihood estimates, total in Poland July 22nd, 2020, at most around 13 times larger least 1.6 than recorded number. The severeness rate ranges between 0.2% 0–39 year-old 5.7% older 80, while 2.6% 34.1%. 0.04% age group 40–59 1.34% oldest. Overall, rates grow exponentially with age. ratio 8.18% youngest 16.88% Conclusions proposed approach derives highly relevant from routine data, under assumption that household members detected infected are tested all diagnosed. MOCOS ( MO delling CO rona S pread) international research an interdisciplinary scientific consortium. following authors members: Barbara Adamik, Marek Bawiec, Viktor Bezborodov, Przemyslaw Biecek, Wolfgang Bock, Marcin Bodych, Jan Pablo Burgard, Tyll Krueger, Agata Migalska, Tomasz Ożański, Pabjan, Magdalena Rosińska, Piotr Sobczyk Ewa Szczurek