The robustness of a simple dynamic model of island biodiversity to geological and eustatic change

• DOI: 10.1101/2021.07.26.453064
• Publication Date: 2021-07-26T23:44:17Z
• Authors: Pedro Santos Neves; Joshua W. Lambert; Luis Valente; Rampal S. Etienne
• Keywords: Colonisation; geodynamics; Mainland; Continental drift; Ocean surface topography

Abstract Aim Biodiversity on islands is affected by various geo-physical processes and sea-level fluctuations. Oceanic (never connected to a landmass) are initially vacant with diversity accumulating via colonisation speciation, followed decline as shrink. Continental have species upon formation (when disconnected from the mainland) may transient land-bridge connections. Theoretical predictions for effects of these geo-processes rates colonisation, speciation extinction been proposed, but methods phylogenetic inference assume only oceanic island scenarios without accounting ontogeny, changes or past landmass Here, we analyse what extent ignoring geodynamics affects performance model, DAISIE, when confronted simulated data that violate its assumptions. Location Simulation continental islands. Methods We extend DAISIE simulation model include: area-dependent diversification associated ontogeny fluctuations, biota present separation mainland, shifts in mimic temporary land-bridges. quantify error made not accounted applying DAISIE’s method geodynamic simulations. Results find robustness dynamic area high (error small) separated long time, suggesting that, types, it possible obtain reliable results geodynamics. However, recently frequently connected, low, should be trusted. Main conclusions: This study highlights under large proportion biogeographic geo-scenarios (oceanic ancient fragments) simple empirically applicable informative. recent connection continent cannot ignored, requiring development new model.