Effects of hydrometeorological and other factors on SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number in three contiguous countries of Tropical Andean South America: a spatiotemporally disaggregated time series analysis

• DOI: 10.1101/2022.06.13.22276339
• Publication Date: 2022-06-16T23:30:10Z
• Authors: Josh M. Colston; Patrick Hinson; Nhat-Lan H. Nguyen; Yen Ting Chen; Hamada S. Badr; Gaige H. Kerr; Lauren M. Gardner; David N. Martin; Antonio M. Quispe; Francesca Schiaffino; Margaret N. Kosek; Benjamin F. Zaitchik
• Keywords: Hydrometeorology

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic has caused societal disruption globally and South America been hit harder than other lower-income regions. This study modeled effects of 6 weather variables on district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers (R t ) in three contiguous countries Tropical Andean (Colombia, Ecuador, Peru), adjusting for environmental, policy, healthcare infrastructural factors. Methods Daily time-series data infections were sourced from health authorities the at smallest available administrative level. R values calculated merged by date unit ID with a Unified dataset publicly sources May – December 2020. Generalized additive mixed models fitted. Findings Relative humidity solar radiation inversely associated . Days above 1,000 KJ/m 2 saw 1.3%, those 50%, 1.0% reduction Transmission was highest densely populated districts, lowest districts poor access days least population mobility. Temperature, region, aggregate government policy response age structure had little impact. fully adjusted model explained 3.9% variance. Interpretation Dry atmospheric conditions low increase, higher decrease numbers, that are comparable magnitude to factors like lockdown compliance. Weather monitoring could be incorporated into disease surveillance early warning systems conjunction more established risk indicators measures. Funding NASA’s Group Earth Observations Work Programme (16-GEO16-0047).