Supply Chain Decoupling: Geopolitical Debates and Economic Dynamism in East Asia

• DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12439
• Publication Date: 2023-08-10T01:44:02Z
• Authors: Mitsuyo Ando; Kazunobu Hayakawa; Fukunari Kimura
• Keywords: Geopolitics; Dynamism; Decoupling (probability)

ABSTRACT Supply chain decoupling in the US–China confrontation has generated serious uncertainties for private businesses. This paper focuses on machinery international production networks East Asia and tries to find quantitative evidence supply by using trade statistics, particularly from viewpoint of middle powers such as Japan. While data sectoral level do not show any clear decoupling, some specific US export controls indeed affect transactions when examined at a finely disaggregated level. We econometrically measure effect policies Japanese exports China. The recent strengthening related supercomputers advanced integrated circuits is likely generate further effects. Nevertheless, seems end up partial one, large portion International Production Networks (IPNs) may remain active. In conclusion, briefly discusses policy implications analysis.