Modelling NAFLD disease burden in four Asian regions—2019‐2030

• DOI: 10.1111/apt.15673
• Publication Date: 2020-03-05T07:28:23Z
• Authors: Chris Estes; Henry L. Y. Chan; Rong N. Chien; Wan‐Long Chuang; James Fung; George Boon-Bee Goh; Tsung H. Hu; Jee‐Fu Huang; Byoung K. Jang; Dae W. Jun; Jia H. Kao; Jin‐Woo Lee; Han‐Chieh Lin; Kathryn Razavi‐Sh...; Wai‐Kay Seto; Grace L. ‐H. Wong; Vincent W. ‐S. Wong; Homie Razavi
• Keywords: Steatohepatitis; Liver disease; Chronic liver disease

Summary Background Non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non‐alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for an increasing proportion of in the Asia‐Pacific region. Many areas region are experiencing epidemics metabolic syndrome among rapidly ageing populations. Aims To estimate using modelling growth NAFLD populations, including cases with significant fibrosis that most likely to experience advanced related mortality. Methods A progression model was used summarise project populations Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea Taiwan. For each area, changes adult prevalence obesity extrapolate long‐term trends incidence. Results In studied, prevalent were projected increase 6%‐20% during 2019‐2030, while NASH 20%‐35%. Incident hepatocellular carcinoma by 65%‐85%, incident decompensated cirrhosis 65%‐100% 2030. Likewise, NAFLD‐related mortality is between 65% 100% from 2019 burden expected alongside rising This leads more associated Conclusions Preventing diabetic obese will be a key factor reducing ongoing increases