Long‐term climate forcings to assess vulnerability in North Africa dry argan woodlands

• DOI: 10.1111/avsc.12133
• Publication Date: 2014-09-15T11:04:42Z
• Authors: Francisca Alba‐Sá...; José Antonio Lópe...; Diego Nieto‐Lugilde; Jens‐Christian Sv...
• Keywords: Last Glacial Maximum; Ecotone

Abstract Questions North African dry woodlands constitute mediterranean climatic ecotone ecosystems of vital importance for human livelihoods and local biodiversity. To improve the basis managing these key ecosystems, we selected a Tertiary relict woodland ( Argania spinosa ) in order to clarify sensitivity long‐term climate change (the present, past glacial‐interglacial cycle under future scenarios). We also discuss impact land use distribution Africa. Location Methods assess whether argan is equilibrium with current climate, used species modelling SDM estimate its potential range. Then, was during Last Glacial Maximum LGM ; 21,000 BP Middle Holocene (Mid‐Holocene; 6,000 ). Model predictions scenarios were compared Quaternary palaeorecords evaluate their accuracy. Finally, forecasted changes range year 2080 likely dynamics. Results At , suitable areas occurred at more southern latitudes, where Sahara Desert currently lies, while Mid‐Holocene shifted northwards, occupying similar those today. The estimated distributions are consistent palaeorecords, providing evidence important role driving range‐filling constitutes 44% distribution, probably primarily reflecting anthropic land‐use effects. Future forecast not cause latitudinal/altitudinal shifts, but rather an overall contraction. Conclusions models reflect high ecosystem changes, agreement palaeorecords. predicts severe contraction change. Consequently, management strategies should be developed facilitate situ survival, particularly by reducing intensive pressure.