A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

• DOI: 10.1111/cdev.12169
• Publication Date: 2013-10-12T02:07:21Z
• Authors: Rens van de Schoot; David Kaplan; Jaap Denissen; Jens B. Asendorpf; Franz J. Neyer; Marcel A.G. van Aken
• Keywords: Biomedical Research; Human Development; 05 social sciences; Bayes Theorem; 16. Peace & justice; 7. Clean energy; Education; 03 medical and health sciences; 0302 clinical medicine; 13. Climate action; Data Interpretation, Statistical; Developmental and Educational Psychology; Humans; 0501 psychology and cognitive sciences; Pediatrics, Perinatology, and Child Health; Development Methods

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are introduced using a simplified example. Thereafter, the advantages and pitfalls of the specification of prior knowledge are discussed. To illustrate Bayesian methods explained in this study, in a second example a series of studies that examine the theoretical framework of dynamic interactionism are considered. In the Discussion the advantages and disadvantages of using Bayesian statistics are reviewed, and guidelines on how to report on Bayesian statistics are provided.