Minimizing the Cost of Keeping Options Open for Conservation in a Changing Climate

• DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12238
• Publication Date: 2014-01-29T18:27:11Z
• Authors: MORENA MILLS; SAM NICOL; JESSIE A. WELLS; JOSÉ J. LAHOZ‐MON...; BRENDAN WINTLE; MICHAEL BODE; MARTIN WARDROP; TERRY WALSHE; WILLIAM J. M. PRO...; MICHAEL C. RUNGE; HUGH P. POSSINGHAM; EVE MCDONALD MADDEN
• Keywords: objetivos multiples; 0106 biological sciences; 0301 basic medicine; Conservation of Natural Resources; 330; Incertidumbre; incertidumbre; Evolution; Climate Change; Decision Making; compresion del litoral; planeacion; Multiple objectives; 710; Objetivos múltiples; 01 natural sciences; 333; 1105 Ecology; 2309 Nature and Landscape Conservation; Environmental Sciences and Ecology; Compresión del litoral; 03 medical and health sciences; Behavior and Systematics; 14. Life underwater; coastal squeeze; uncertainty; Ecosystem; Spatial planning; espacial; 0303 health sciences; Biodiversity and Conservation; Uncertainty; Coastal squeeze; sea-level rise; Models, Theoretical; coastal zones; Planeación espacial; 2700 Medicine; 13. Climate action; multiple objectives; spatial planning; 2303 Ecology; management

Abstract Policy documents advocate that managers should keep their options open while planning to protect coastal ecosystems from climate‐change impacts. However, the actual costs and benefits of maintaining flexibility remain largely unexplored, alternative approaches for decision making under uncertainty may lead better joint outcomes conservation other societal goals. For example, keeping incurs opportunity developers. We devised a framework integrates these with probabilistic forecasts extent sea‐level rise find balance between ecosystem protection moderate development. Here, we suggest instead incorporate uncertain predictions into decision‐making evaluates In our based on plausible scenarios assuming risk‐neutral maker, found substantial development could be accommodated negligible loss environmental assets. Characterization Pareto efficiency provides valuable insight intensity trade‐offs conservation. additional work is required improve understanding consequences spatial plans value judgments risk preferences makers stakeholders. Minimizando el Costo de Mantener Opciones Abiertas para la Conservación en un Clima Cambiante