The perpetual state of emergency that sacrifices protected areas in a changing climate

• DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13099
• Publication Date: 2018-02-23T08:52:39Z
• Authors: Dirac Twidwell; Carissa L. Wonkka; Christine H. Bielski; Craig R. Allen; David G. Angeler; Jacob Drozda; Ahjond S. Garmestani; Julia Johnson; Larkin A. Powell; Caleb P. Roberts
• Keywords: 2. Zero hunger; Conservation of Natural Resources; 0303 health sciences; 330; Climate; Climate Change; Natural Resources Management and Policy; Conservation Reserve Program (CRP); nonstationarity; Agriculture; 15. Life on land; scenario analysis; Great Plains; 333; emergency haying and grazing; 03 medical and health sciences; climate change; policy threshold; 13. Climate action; Natural Resources and Conservation; protected areas; Seasons; Other Environmental Sciences; Environmental Sciences

Abstract A modern challenge for conservation biology is to assess the consequences of policies that adhere assumptions stationarity (e.g., historic norms) in an era global environmental change. Such may result unexpected and surprising levels mitigation given future climate‐change trajectories, especially as agriculture looks protected areas buffer against production losses during periods extremes. We assessed potential impact scenarios on rates at which grasslands enrolled Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) are authorized emergency harvesting (i.e., biomass removal) agricultural use, can occur when precipitation previous 4 months below 40% normal or historical mean 4‐month period. developed analyzed under condition policy will continue operate stationarity, thereby authorizing solely a function departure from norms. Model projections showed likelihood any year northern Great Plains was 33.28% based long‐term weather records. Emergency became norm (>50% years) scenario reflected continued increases emissions decrease growing‐season precipitation, with higher annual rainfall were disproportionately affected subject greater increase removal. decreased only rapid reductions emissions. Our scenario‐impact analysis indicated lands CRP would be used primarily climatic change unless guidelines adapted significantly depart current consensus.